Congress, TDP fail to draw Muslims

The landslide win of YSR Congress in Seemandhra region in the Assembly and Lok Sabha bypolls has parallels to the outcome of the 'fratricidal fight' between two Congress parties in Andhra Pradesh way back in 1978 Assembly elections. At that time, the ruling Congress party led by then chief minister Jalagam Vengala Rao was routed at the hands of the fledgling Indira Congress while the non-Congress formation - Janata Party—failed to offer a credible alternative. The Congress-I had bagged 178 Assembly seats while the Congress (R) could get only 30 seats and the Janata garnered 60 seats.

Thereafter, the Congress (R) was virtually decimated and Vengala Rao himself joined the Congress-I. The Janata Party disappeared without a trace. Now, after 34 years, the fight between two Congress parties in the bypolls has left the ruling Congress badly bruised while YSR Congress walked away with the honours. The main opposition TDP could do nothing but lick its wounds. By all accounts, it was YSR Congress wave all across the 12 districts where bypolls were held. In terms of votes, YSR Congress polled 48.98%, whereas the Congress came a distant second with 22.68%, with TDP trailing at third position with 22.03% of the total votes.

It is apparent that YSR Congress drew an overwhelming support of all sections of society, including dalits, tribals, Muslims, Backward Classes and dominant upper caste group—Reddys. This explains the huge majorities that its candidates notched up not only in Nellore Lok Sabha constituency but also in a majority of the Assembly segments. The attempts of the ruling Congress and TDP to woo these sections came to naught.

The bypoll results have some lessons for the Congress and TDP so far as Muslim voters are concerned. In five Assembly constituencies as well as in Nellore LS constituency, where Muslim voters accounted for a sizeable chunk of the electorate, YSR Congress emerged victorious with huge margins. In other constituencies in south coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, too, Muslims, accounting for six to eight per cent of total electorate, backed YSR Congress.

In Rayachoti, which has 24.86% Muslim voters, YSR Congress got the highest majority. In Anantapur Urban, where Muslims account for 21.81% of the electorate, the lone Muslim candidate from the Congress Mursheeda Begum polled only 9,406 votes and lost her security deposit as YSR Congress rival romped home. In Allagadda (with 18.93% Muslim voters), Yemmiganur (12.32%) and Rajampet (12.31%), YSR Congress candidates piled up big majorities over their Congress/TDP rivals. In Nellore LS too, where Muslims account for 11.16% of the electorate, YSR Congress candidate registered a landslide victory.

The bypoll results, thus, indicate a significant shift of Muslim voters away from the Congress towards the YSR Congress. In the 2004 general elections, Muslims had wholeheartedly supported the Congress as they were angry with TDP for aligning with BJP and for keeping the NDA in power at the Centre for six years. In 2009, too, Muslims had backed the Congress against the Maha Kutami (TDP-led four-party front) because of the four per cent reservations and scholarship and fees reimbursement schemes announced by YSR regime. This time the Muslims have shown their preference for YSR Congress and this could be due to two reasons. First, they owe their gratitude to YSR for introducing these schemes/initiatives. Second, the Congress failed to propagate to Muslims that these schemes were, in fact, launched by the party as part of its 2004 poll manifesto, though YSR might have been instrumental in actually implementing these.

With a nine per cent share of the state's total electorate, Muslims are going to play a crucial role in the next elections. Out of the 294 Assembly seats in the state, 95 constituencies have Muslim voters in excess of 10%. Significantly, 65 of these segments have more than 15% Muslim voters. Similarly, out of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state, 17 constituencies have Muslim voters in excess of 10%. Seven of these constituencies have more than 15% Muslim voters.

These constituencies are spread across all the three regions of the state-—Telangana, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra—and no party can afford to ignore Muslims.